Late 2020s. I will make a long story short.

Hardware: With the advances in nanotech, the world's fastest supercomputer will achieve 10^16 calculations by the end of this decade. This matches the processing power of the human brain. By the end of the next decade, computers with 10^16 cps will cost less than $1000.

Software: Real-time scans for each interneuronal connection made possible. We have already mapped out more than 1/2 of the human brain, including the cerebrum, neocortex, etc. There have been ample tests that show that silicon can effectively replace neurons to make it function properly. If we cannot find a software to model this by the 2020s, we will be able to "brute force" our way to AI by mapping every single portion of the brain onto a computer. At the latest, this will be around 2030.

What say everyone?

This post has been edited by Nihilated: 5 May, 2008 - 09:28 PM

What's your definition of "AI"? depending on the definition, it's something we've already achieved, might achieve in a couple of decades, or might never achieve.

You know, we have a bunch of obstacles to AI and not just from the technology standpoint. Regulatory blocks have to be lifted, human ignorance will have to be a thing of the past, governments need to stop being afraid of technology and understand it, and Microsoft needs to be gone.

Then perhaps we have a shot. I estimate that most of this can be accomplished by the 2040s.

Well looking at some of the new technology at the moment and the rate that new technology is being developed i say it will be in the next decade or so because some scientist are managing to combine computers with human brains by adding a memory chip to a human brain. So it is possible to get AI its just finding the people to get it going.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=BCNTNKq-LOE

haha! so true...

Technically speaking, we will never have AI. Computers are all based on a binary platform and therefore are only capable of doing what is programmed into them. Computers are restricted to 100% logical , arithmetic operations and can never use any type of emotion to make decisions. Even a system that can learn from itself and process 2^100000000.... power of instructions per second are still restricted to whatever the programmer tells it what to do. It may appear that a system behaves with some degree of AI, but this is not possible now or in the near future. The human brain can still store and retrieve more information and also use this data faster than any computer system. By this I mean retrieve, process both logically and emotionally without anyone telling it what to do.

Think of a computer system as using a form of instinct to do things like many/most living species except for humans and ape species.

Actually we can program a human brain to do something like a computer as we can program a computer to react to something like when it has an error we can program it to do something like when a human get something we have taught them but not really noticing that we have but we have taught them to be angry or another emotion. So when we can understand the brain we will be able to copy it. But we can get very close by we can program a robot to act anger when it errors or can't do something.

The thing is, AI is supposedly going to get the point where it updates its own source code upon mistakes. The first computer with true AI will have the mind of a child and through exposure to stimuli will gradually learn, reprogram ITSELF and use this updated code to then tackle new problems.

Its the idea that humans won't be doing the programming, computers will do it themselves. They will continuously optimize and thus execute instructions faster. I figure after several thousand or more cycles the language which it will program itself in will be something that humans can no longer understand and it will be writing its own computer language, with its own logic and with its instructions.

You are certainly right about the start, but with the right mechanism humans will only need to kick it off (give the computer a basic set of rules by which it will update itself with) and it will then continue on its own. I mean, even Lt Commander Data on STNG updates his own programming to better understand humanity and thus becomes more human.



This post has been edited by Martyr2: 7 May, 2008 - 02:52 PM

Hopefully that never happens in my lifetime

No Kidding! I can only imagine what my computer would want to do to me if it had a mind of its own.

The only way to go would be to merge with the exponentially improving computers.