The future of development is 'Software as a Service' anyway. Imo, standard installation type programs have been going away since the day after Cloud Computing was introduced.
By "cloud" you mean "thin client"?
Yeah, I really don't see that happening this time any more than it happened the last time. Especially since at some point the cloud providers are going to have to start making money to pay for those server farms - and then people will go right back to the hard drive on their machine that they've already paid for.