[adn258]

So I've always been a big windows fan (personally) due to the fact that a lot of their development on win32 hasn't changed much in years. That said the conventional way of writing applications for years in C C++ or C# on a framework like .net may be coming to an end.

I don't want to believe it's true but unfortunately I think it might be. This article The End Of Windows
Which talks about how Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says that Windows 8 is the end of windows. Again unfortunately I think he might be right.

Windows 8 hasn't been the super popular hit a lot of people thought it was going to be. Even though it works on tablets it isn't as good as or perceived as good as other mobile device OS's. It's still too focused on personal computers and apparently more and more people don't WANT PERSONAL computers but instead want tablets and mobile hot devices.

Many of you might be saying: "Well they won't be as fast as PC's or desktop's right?"

This is technically true but as pointed out in that article it's called cloud computing. The conventional idea of downloading and installing software is becoming a moot point. Software will be locate on large servers online and with internet speeds becoming so fast people will be using and creating more and more software on the internet. Plus smaller devices are ALSO getting better hardware meaning that after a point they may have plenty of hardware themselves.

That's at least what I predict. 10 years max. Desktops will be marginally used and desktop conventional software won't be used much either. Applications like say your word processor will all be online. You will use these applications online for a fee or for free.

Then software written to install on an actual OS will be small widget programs for phones and tablets (already happening) and they too will use a lot of what they do from the internet just like a lot of tablet and phone games use now.

What do people here think?

[Atli]

Here is what I think.

First, not a single Windows, Mac or Linux OS has ever been release without somebody, somewhere, predicting it being the cause of the freaking apocalypse. A lot of people hate Microsoft, and will loudly and stupidly predict all manner of ill fortune upon everything that comes out of that company. (Same goes for Apple.) Don't fall for it. Windows is by far the dominant OS on the market, and I seriously doubt that will have changed ten years from now. - That's not to say Windows 8 is necessary any good. Microsoft has a long and proud history of producing crappy Windows versions (95, ME, Vista), among their decent versions (98, XP, Win7). Actually, they are due for a bad one, which is why I'm currently waiting for Win8 SP1 before seriously considering using it.

And about the cloud computing. No offense, but this is fairly old news. Google has been doing online, cloud based applications for years (Gmail, Google Docs/Drive) and Microsoft, who have had it's own cloud based email service forever, have even joined in with an online version of Office. (Limited as that may be.)

Cloud computing is great to a point, but I doubt it is likely to replace the desktop anytime soon. People will be very reluctant to trust their business systems, or even home systems, on a purely cloud based platform.

This post has been edited by Atli: 10 December 2012 - 06:47 AM
Reason for edit:: Major spell checker fail.

[adn258]

Atli, on 10 December 2012 - 06:45 AM, said:

Here is what I think.

First, not a single Windows, Mac or Linux OS has ever been release without somebody, somewhere, predicting it being the cause of the freaking apocalypse. A lot of people hate Microsoft, and will loudly and stupidly predict all manner of ill fortune upon everything that comes out of that company. (Same goes for Apple.) Don't fall for it. Windows is by far the dominant OS on the market, and I seriously doubt that will have changed ten years from now. - That's not to say Windows 8 is necessary any good. Microsoft has a long and proud history of producing crappy Windows versions (95, ME, Vista), among their decent versions (98, XP, Win7). Actually, they are due for a bad one, which is why I'm currently waiting for Win8 SP1 before seriously considering using it.

And about the cloud computing. No offense, but this is fairly old news. Google has been doing online, cloud based applications for years (Gmail, Google Docs/Drive) and Microsoft, who have had it's own cloud based email service forever, have even joined in with an online version of Office. (Limited as that may be.)

Cloud computing is great to a point, but I doubt it is likely to replace the desktop anytime soon. People will be very reluctant to trust their business systems, or even home systems, on a purely cloud based platform.

I'm not saying this is the END of WINDOWS. Personally I like windows especially Windows 7. As far as windows 8 goes I don't know I've never tried it.

That said for a nominal fee users could use online SAFE trusted companies software. Why would this NOT replace current on system installed software?

[JonPM]

So just because software is in the cloud our desktop computers will become obsolete? I don't get it. I for one will not tolerate typing a 15pg paper on my tablet or phone...

[Atli]

adn258, on 14 December 2012 - 08:39 PM, said:

That said for a nominal fee users could use online SAFE trusted companies software. Why would this NOT replace current on system installed software?

That's the problem. What does a company decision maker know about what kind of systems can be trusted; what systems are safe? Present the guy who makes these decisions with an old and familiar concept like a desktop application or an in-house network based system, and a new^(ish) and unfamiliar concept like cloud computing, and what do you think he'll decide on? Even the vast majority of the people with the technical skills to understand the differences between these systems would opt for the old, well known systems. Especially when the decision is critical to the success of their companies, and thus their own jobs.

JonPM, on 14 December 2012 - 09:08 PM, said:

So just because software is in the cloud our desktop computers will become obsolete? I don't get it. I for one will not tolerate typing a 15pg paper on my tablet or phone...

No, what pure cloud computing software would mean is that your desktop software would become obsolete. Nothing says you'll be working exclusively on mobile devices. If you look into Google's Chrome OS you should get the picture.

[Skydiver]

So what do you call writing code for Chrome OS and the various devices that you are envisioning? Isn't that still considered non-cloud computing?

<sarcasm>
And if you are truly a believer in cloud computing, I dare you to write a 5K to 25K character long response here on DIC at around the time they do server maintenance (every 11PM PDT or 10PDT). No cheating and writing the response on a "desktop" program like a text editor first. It has to be purely on the forum software and UI provided by your web browser.

Also try flying on United Airlines and various airlines without WiFi and do some code development. I bet you'd be begging to have some "desktop" software.
</sarcasm>

[adn258]

Right I'm not saying this is going to happen overnight there are still some advantages for desktop software etc. I'm asking if in the long run how MUCH OF AN AFFECT will it have on desktop software. For example in 2030 90% of all computers may be cloud based ALMOST ENTIRELY with just 10% that are not.

Maybe it won't EVER take over that much but remain at 20% and never anymore than that so I think this is interesting.

Personally I think dekstops will be needed LESS and I don't think there's much argument there as that's already happening the real questions is HOW MUCH LESS 10% 20% 90% etc.

I also am not saying there won't always be "SOME" need for desktop install software!! Again this is questions of how much in my mind

This post has been edited by adn258: 15 December 2012 - 12:45 AM

[Atli]

There is no way to know that. I'd be inclined to believe that cloud computing will never get anything close to 90%, but my guess is just as good (or, more likely: bad) as yours.

In any case, it's not as if it's an "either or" situation. I think web applications will rapidly become more popular, and services like Google Drive and Dropbox will be more used in the future for storage (especially for syncing documents with mobiles), but I also think this will be used with desktop systems rather than instead of them. I personally use Drive a lot myself to share things across all my devices, but most of my files I work on using desktop software.

[BobRodes]

I don't think cloud computing will supplant other forms of data storage entirely, no. The implication is that all data can be entrusted to whoever is overseeing cloud storage. If you were, say, a bank, would you want Microsoft (for example) to keep track of all of your customers' account data, or would you prefer to do it yourself? Especially if you were liable for any security breach?

[jon.kiparsky]

I work with Salesforce every day, and I can tell you that desktop software is in no danger on that front.
It's okay as a CRM tool, I guess, but there's not a lot further that you can push it. Windows might yet collapse, I don't know, but it won't be SalesFarce that does it in.

[stackoverflow]

Cloud computing has a small and limited use in the computer world. There are too many systems that will never be cloud based-- anything that requires strict security (banking, military, government, critical infrastructure systems), embedded systems, real-time systems, operating systems, the browsers that run the cloud based stuff, the servers that handle the cloud based stuff, and performance intensive systems.

So no, "standard" development is not coming to an end.

This post has been edited by stackoverflow: 29 December 2012 - 04:54 AM