Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

  • (98 Pages)
  • +
  • « First
  • 54
  • 55
  • 56
  • 57
  • 58
  • Last »

1467 Replies - 55532 Views - Last Post: Yesterday, 01:44 PM

#826 jon.kiparsky   User is offline

  • Beginner
  • member icon


Reputation: 11041
  • View blog
  • Posts: 18,857
  • Joined: 19-March 11

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

Hm. Still not seeing where the savings come from, but I'll take your word for it, since I don't have time to get comparable numbers.

I mean, I work next to a major ship repair facility, and I see USN ships like the USNS Comfort sitting for weeks on end in dry-dock, several times a year. If a ship, which operates at ground level, can require that much down time, I don't see how you re-launch a bloody rocket without stripping it down to parts and probably replacing most of them. Unless you're relying on "it's probably fine", which seems unlikely given that the Falcon's only real failure mode is "kaboom".
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#827 ArtificialSoldier   User is offline

  • D.I.C Lover
  • member icon

Reputation: 2021
  • View blog
  • Posts: 6,151
  • Joined: 15-January 14

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:06 PM

The USNS Comfort, and any other ship, has to deal with one of the most damaging substances we have here - water. Add salt to the water, and it's even more fun. And the ship is in direct contact with that water for the vast majority of its life. The 2 boosters from yesterday, on the other hand, turned on their engines, throttled up and down a couple times, separated, shot their little jets to spin them around, fired the engines, dropped for a long time, then one last engine burn and deploy the landing legs. They touched down at T+8:08. The next weeks or months are spent reconditioning them for whatever happened during those 8 minutes. Comparing them to what an ocean ship goes through during its entire usable life is like comparing ocean ships to rocket boosters.

Now put on your headphones, and turn the volume up all the way.

Was This Post Helpful? 1
  • +
  • -

#828 depricated   User is offline

  • Nero


Reputation: 2418
  • View blog
  • Posts: 6,103
  • Joined: 13-September 08

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:22 PM

So NASA's newest boosters are non-recoverable "ballistic missile" rockets as Jon described. With an estimated cost of 1.5-2.5 billion.

If the SpaceX boosters were 75% of the cost - hell if they were 100% of the cost, even - at 90 million - that's 6% of the lowest estimated cost.

NASA's boosters are recovered. They crash into the ocean and a team goes out and retrieves them. So pointing out that SpaceX's booster requires a recovery team is kind of silly. Both require a recovery team. The difference is this: SpaceX's recovery team is a team of drone operators flying it back to the launch pad, while NASA's is a pair of ships that go fish the booster casings out of the ocean. The booster's materials are recycled and rebuilt for each flight by NASA, while SpaceX can simply perform maintenance to restore them. No hauling them out of the ocean, loading/transporting them to the vehicle assembly, then back to the pad. They can be maintained, fixed, etc right there.

We're still decades off from seeing any sort of casual spaceflight, at the most optimistic, but this is a huge step in the direction we need to be going to achieve it. Sure it's not the Enterprise or Millennium Falcon - we've got a long way to go before we get there. This is a monumental step forward.

And he's got a point about reuse. If they've launched and returned, it should only take minor upkeep to repair them. Yea there's wear and tear - there's wear and tear on my car's engine every time I drive, too. That's not a good reason to stick with a horse and buggy, why cling to draconian methods?

Shit next you're gonna start in about the glory of emacs or something :whistling:
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#829 BetaWar   User is offline

  • #include "soul.h"
  • member icon

Reputation: 1509
  • View blog
  • Posts: 8,273
  • Joined: 07-September 06

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:44 PM

Where's the holy hand grenadepopcorn when you need it?
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#830 ArtificialSoldier   User is offline

  • D.I.C Lover
  • member icon

Reputation: 2021
  • View blog
  • Posts: 6,151
  • Joined: 15-January 14

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 07 February 2018 - 04:00 PM

Here's an article comparing Saturn V vs. Falcon Heavy. The first few paragraphs point out what an amazing vehicle Saturn V was. I think he officially announced Falcon Heavy in 2011, but if you go back to the other rockets the flight yesterday was the culmination of 13 years of work. The Saturn V went from concept to launch in 7 years. That's what happens when money is no object.

I would highly recommend visiting Kennedy Space Center, even if there's not a launch (but definitely if there is one). The Apollo visitors center near the viewing stands for launch complex 39 contains a Saturn V. When you walk in the door you're staring at the 5 F1 engines.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#831 jon.kiparsky   User is offline

  • Beginner
  • member icon


Reputation: 11041
  • View blog
  • Posts: 18,857
  • Joined: 19-March 11

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:08 PM

Coming back to the question of the advantages of the recycled boost stage, I'm sticking with skeptical for the time being. The idea that it's cheaper to build the self-landing version and then get it back in service than to just throw away the simple disposable version just doesn't pass the smell test for me, but we'll see what happens after they're done with the promo shots and start having to make payroll with this thing.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#832 bingy   User is offline

  • D.I.C Addict
  • member icon

Reputation: 138
  • View blog
  • Posts: 815
  • Joined: 15-December 06

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 09:05 AM

Jon they have been doing that for a few years now with the Falcon 9. This is just essentially 3 Falcon 9's strapped together as the first stage.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#833 jon.kiparsky   User is offline

  • Beginner
  • member icon


Reputation: 11041
  • View blog
  • Posts: 18,857
  • Joined: 19-March 11

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 09:55 AM

Yep. We'll see how it works out. Remember, this idea comes from a guy whose solution to the car problem is "make more cars". So I'm not massively impressed by his problem-solving abilities.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#834 ArtificialSoldier   User is offline

  • D.I.C Lover
  • member icon

Reputation: 2021
  • View blog
  • Posts: 6,151
  • Joined: 15-January 14

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 10:38 AM

That's a rather over-simplification I think. "The car problem" isn't going to change overnight, if you think Americans like their guns just wait until someone tries to take their cars. It's not all that fair to look at his businesses as separate. Sure, he's selling cars, but he's also manufacturing batteries and power storage at gigafactory 1 in Nevada, a factory which he intends to be energy self-reliant, he'll manufacture solar panels at gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, and who knows what else at upcoming factories in Europe. He's not just selling an electric car in a vacuum, he's working on the support industry around it also.

Quote

So I'm not massively impressed by his problem-solving abilities.

He did win a bet with Australia to manufacture and install the world's largest lithium-ion battery in 100 days or less or it's free. I think that he really is the rare guy who is chiefly motivated just by helping solve big problems that will help a lot of other people. With Australia, for example, he's never lived there, I don't even know if he's ever been there (I assume he has), but there are people there who need help and he can help them, so he wanted to help them. And it's not just about PR or whatever else, look at his reaction here and tell me that's not empathy and compassion. He grew up reading Asimov's Foundation series and took away the lessons about doing things that help us progress, avoid a dark age, or shorten a dark age if there is one, and it really does look like that's what drives him.

Regardless, what would your solution to "the car problem" be if you had $20 billion? Difficulty: no forcing people to do what you think they should do.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to think about what would happen if everyone who was richer than Musk (he's far away from the top 10) used their time and money to solve big problems in the same way that he is.
Was This Post Helpful? 1
  • +
  • -

#835 jon.kiparsky   User is offline

  • Beginner
  • member icon


Reputation: 11041
  • View blog
  • Posts: 18,857
  • Joined: 19-March 11

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 11:36 AM

View PostArtificialSoldier, on 08 February 2018 - 12:38 PM, said:

Regardless, what would your solution to "the car problem" be if you had $20 billion? Difficulty: no forcing people to do what you think they should do.


I have no idea, so I'd start by buying good ideas - offer 20 $1m prizes for the best ideas to improve transit in some particular city, and those prizes are given based on a set of coherent metrics that value things we care about*, that buys you dozens of good ideas to implement and a massive pot of money to support implementation of those ideas. Take some chunk of that pot for a long-term clearinghouse of transit planning so those ideas can be efficiently generalized and shared by cities, so each city doesn't have to reinvent those wheels, and start issuing matching grants to the cities, starting in the cities where we can get the best immediate results.

You'll see some obvious answers - dynamic scheduling to get buses stopping closer to riders' homes at times that they actually want to travel, dynamic routing to get people to where they actually want to be (ie, Uber but less stupid) or tinkering with infrastructure and amenities. You might see more creative ideas, for example encouraging staggered work shifts to flatten out peaks. You might see some stuff that's totally out of left field, which will be interesting and much to be hoped-for. (perhaps a sidecar prize for the best impractical idea would be a good bet)
At the end of the day, you have picked twenty ideas and you've got a little under $1b per idea on average, so you should be able to deliver some pretty good improvements.

And frankly, this pays for itself. We frankly can't afford this idiotic idea of putting every human being into their own gas-powered wheelchair, and changing over to coal-powered ones doesn't help all that much. We can't afford it as a species, and we can't afford it individually. US drivers put close to $10K per year into their cars, which is almost entirely used for the same trip every day from Monday to Friday. That is purely stupid. Just looking at the US, if you're Joe Average and your taxes go up by $1K a year to fund this - which would be insane - that's still a $9K annual raise in your pocket. If you go out of town every single weekend, that's maybe $5K in Flexcar spending and you're still $4K to the good. What's not to like?

* granted, the aggregate of those metrics will be more or less equivalent to "which idea eliminates the most private vehicle miles?" but presumably they would be written in terms of improving experience for the transit user, not in terms of punishing the driver. Some arguments will result about things like congestion charges, which are not so much about punishing drivers and more about charging people for a scarce resource, but those arguments can be contained.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#836 ArtificialSoldier   User is offline

  • D.I.C Lover
  • member icon

Reputation: 2021
  • View blog
  • Posts: 6,151
  • Joined: 15-January 14

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 02:28 PM

Well, it's certainly ambitious to redevelop the world's cities and societies to encourage less reliance on private vehicles, but I imagine that rebuilding everything is going to cost a bit more than $20 billion. In the meantime, I like that Musk is pushing to help reform power generation and storage. It's a necessary first step towards any positive future.
Was This Post Helpful? 1
  • +
  • -

#837 modi123_1   User is online

  • Suitor #2
  • member icon



Reputation: 14045
  • View blog
  • Posts: 56,207
  • Joined: 12-June 08

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 02:56 PM

Frick'n frack'n fark'n move didn't go as planned.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#838 Martyr2   User is offline

  • Programming Theoretician
  • member icon

Reputation: 5207
  • View blog
  • Posts: 13,955
  • Joined: 18-April 07

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 08 February 2018 - 05:18 PM

Week1 - Boss: "I am scared step 1 isn't going to work, it would be nice to do a proof of concept. It really scares me."
Week2 - Boss: "Yeah I am pretty scared this step 1 isn't going to work... maybe if you can work on a prototype of it, that will be good."
Week3 - Boss: "If we can just get this first step out of the way, that will be great. It scares me that we will be on the hook for this."
Week4 - Me: "So sir, this is that proof of concept showing step 1 will work just fine. I anticipate little difficulty and after seeing this it should be no problem."
Boss: "Well I am scared that step 2 isn't going to work, boy it would be nice if we can get that piece working and prototyped out...."

*facepalm*
Was This Post Helpful? 3
  • +
  • -

#839 jon.kiparsky   User is offline

  • Beginner
  • member icon


Reputation: 11041
  • View blog
  • Posts: 18,857
  • Joined: 19-March 11

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 09 February 2018 - 08:52 AM

Ended up having to cancel my airbnb reservation for PyCon in May, now I'm looking at some pretty crap options for places to stay - no rooms on airbnb near the event site, and the hotel is an arm and a leg. Sigh.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

#840 NeoTifa   User is offline

  • NeoTifa Codebreaker, the Scourge of Devtester
  • member icon





Reputation: 4202
  • View blog
  • Posts: 18,444
  • Joined: 24-September 08

Re: Ermahgerd! What are you even working on, like, right now?

Posted 09 February 2018 - 08:55 AM

Just found out that the Faker gem has libraries for GoT, DBZ, Harry Potter, Overwatch, LotR, etc. That's pretty fun. I already had Dany Stormborn paying everybody's bills.
Was This Post Helpful? 0
  • +
  • -

  • (98 Pages)
  • +
  • « First
  • 54
  • 55
  • 56
  • 57
  • 58
  • Last »