[ge∅]

Individual people creating clusters in a context where nearly everyone else is isolated is similar to having a big portion of the population vaccinated. You get limited outbreaks but the spread is each time limited to a relatively small social network. I don't think ending the confinement in an entire state can lead to gentle little spikes like that, unless you keep strict social distancing, avoid hubs (like your hair dresser, a central market) and have a massive testing and contact tracing policy in place. This is why I have been so insistent borderline annoying lately. I am convinced the difference in scale is huge.

[ArtificialSoldier]

https://twitter.com/...8395150337?s=21

[Skydiver]

I was not truly scared of this pandemic until this latest syndrome found in children 4-6 weeks after exposure.
Kawasaki Disease From COVID-19 in Kids: How Common?

[ge∅]

Then get prepared to read this... https://jamanetwork....article/2765654

Viruses can be responsible of secondary diseases in the long run. For example the papillomavirus can cause cancer in women. Viruses responsible for herpes simplex or Chickenpox/Shingles hide in neuron cells for the rest of your life and can be reactivated.

We have no idea if COVID-19 will have a durable impact on people who got it, because... time has not passed.

Especially when considering the virus has mutate a lot already and maybe could mutate enough to reinfect us next year with a new strain which will require a new vaccine. Maybe it's going to be worse the next time. Who knows...

[ArtificialSoldier]

More mess at the White House, with an apparent press briefing today as well.

[Skydiver]

SMH:

Quote

"If we did very little testing, [America] wouldn't have the most cases," Trump said last Wednesday. "So, in a way, by doing all of this testing, we make ourselves look bad."

[ArtificialSoldier]

Yeah, that's where we're at, that's our leadership. If we ignore the problem, we won't have a problem.

[ArtificialSoldier]

Well that didn't end well:

https://www.independ...e-a9509476.html

[Skydiver]

Don't ask questions. Just always say how great Chairman Mao, err, I mean, President Trump is.

[ge∅]

To be fair, the USA's COVID-19 mortality rate is around 6%. For comparison purposes:
- Germany: 4.4% (they did great in terms of testing)
- China: 5.5%
- France: 15% (we did veeery poorly).
- South Korea: 2.3%.

Provided that these countries have about the same quality of hospitals, a country with a high mortality rate probably doesn't test enough people.

This way of comparing testing policies have the quality of avoiding the question of the quality of testing (testing sick people only or a random sample of the population).

It's not the stellar performance advertised but the USA did not do poorly in terms of the number of cases found.

What is terrible however is that the USA have as many dead people as China has confirmed cases...

[supersloth]

happy to report that, so far, i have not contracted the coronavirus.

[ge∅]

I don't know if you were expecting anything from the European version of the Solidarity clinical trial, Discovery, but it's a total fiasco. There are not enough patients included.

Indeed, it costs 5000 euros to include 1 patient in the trial. So far only France has made the investment and many citizens and sometimes doctors refused to take part to the trial because of this worthless piece of shit who claimed Hydroxy-chloroquine was this miracle cure and raised questions on the morality of doing clinical trials at all, especially with placebo arm.

I think they were planning on using the multi-arm bandit / upper confidence bound algorithm to solve the exploration/exploitation problem of clinical trials and allow the allocation of clinical arms to be dynamic during the trial. I wonder if this is also what Solidarity is doing but that's very interesting form an information perspective.

[ArtificialSoldier]

Quote

What is terrible however is that the USA have as many dead people as China has confirmed cases...

Right... but you need to take those numbers with a giant chunk of pink Himalayan organic gluten-free Tibetan mountain salt.

[DarenR]

i literally have old class mates that say a 6% death rate is acceptable and we should reopen everything no holds bar--- i asked them what else has such a high mortality rate that they think 6% is acceptable and they couldnt come up with one. Just a bunch of self-absorbed people.

[ge∅]

Quote

a giant chunk of pink Himalayan organic gluten-free Tibetan mountain salt

XD

My SO is Chinese so were informed by her parents of what was happening in their city in real time, and clearly no country in the world has been so aggressive with their response to the epidemic, to the point it was ridiculous (taking the temperature of everybody entering every flat when there is only one confirmed case in your city, which is the size of a small state)... clearly, these kind of measures have diminishing returns and they pushed them really really far, but they must have had some effect. I can't tell you the figures are correct, but with the data I have now and considering the history of the epidemic, the pace at which China reacted, etc. the credence I give to these figures is a lot greater than pink Himalayan salt.