[jon.kiparsky]

As we've seen, our Dear Leader seems to have absolutely no conception of public or personal safety.

How long will it be before he becomes a patient, and what happens then? Considering that he's often in the room with Pence, both of them unmasked, what are the odds of a two-fer? Would that mean Pelosi would get to take charge while they're both intubated?

I honestly hope this doesn't happen. I would hate to put medical personnel under the sort of temptation that situation would entail... "Oh, dear, I seem to have been standing on the President's oxygen line... clumsy of me..."

h4nnib4l, on 13 May 2020 - 11:19 AM, said:

Yeah, but those numbers in the left column are misleading if you're talking about the whole country. I have a feeling that NPR polls aren't hitting a lot of Fox News viewers, and even fewer Brietbart readers (using "Brietbart" and "readers" in the same sentence seems weird...).

Hm. When NPR commissions a poll, does that mean do you think they only poll their listeners? Or do they try to hit a more representative sample?

I honestly don't know how polling is done when it's commissioned by a media organization.

[ArtificialSoldier]

The word on the street is that Trump, and maybe Pence, are tested daily and that anyone they will come into direct contact with is also tested, and if they're positive then their contacts are traced. In other words, he completely understands how to stop the spread, the reasons why he wants to open the country have nothing to do with ignorance.

[DarenR]

jon.kiparsky, on 13 May 2020 - 03:56 PM, said:

I honestly don't know how polling is done when it's commissioned by a media organization.

Rasmussan generally only polls registered republicans and only people with land lines...

[h4nnib4l]

jon.kiparsky, on 13 May 2020 - 02:56 PM, said:

h4nnib4l, on 13 May 2020 - 11:19 AM, said:

Yeah, but those numbers in the left column are misleading if you're talking about the whole country. I have a feeling that NPR polls aren't hitting a lot of Fox News viewers, and even fewer Brietbart readers (using "Brietbart" and "readers" in the same sentence seems weird...).

Hm. When NPR commissions a poll, does that mean do you think they only poll their listeners? Or do they try to hit a more representative sample?

I honestly don't know how polling is done when it's commissioned by a media organization.

I'm not sure either, I was just speculating that the responses to polls put on by media organizations will greatly over-represent their consumers. Using NPR as an example, Breitbart viewers are probably very unlikely to respond to any polls that they know are coming from NPR (if they know what NPR is). But I don't have anything to back that up.

[DarenR]

this is NPRs polling methodology

Quote

With a view to the upcoming elections, the surveys were conducted with likely voters. All participants were registered voters, voted in the 2000 presidential election (or not eligible), and indicated they were certain or almost certain to vote in 2002. The sample of potential respondents was generated by random digit dial methodology. GQR interviewed 877 voters, with a margin of error of 3.3 percent. The POS survey interviewed 633 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

[ArtificialSoldier]

When I've gotten calls for polls on my cell phone, they tell me the name of whoever they work for but not the client who hired them to do the polling.

[jon.kiparsky]

Cool, thanks for that research. So maybe the polls are reasonably representative after all, though that still leaves open the question of whether the poll was geographically centered in some region (we could expect different responses based on region, so that would be expected to skew things)

Quote

All participants were registered voters, voted in the 2000 presidential election (or not eligible), and indicated they were certain or almost certain to vote in 2002.

We're assuming that methodology has not changed in the last 20 years, I see

[DarenR]

this is a current one:

Quote

Nature of the Sample: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of 835 National Adults This survey of 835 adults was conducted March 13th through March 14th, 2020 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the contiguous United States were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Survey questions were available in English. Mobile telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation from Dynata. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Mobile phones are treated as individual devices. After validation of age, personal ownership, and non-business-use of the mobile phone, interviews are typically conducted with the person answering the phone. To increase coverage, this mobile sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of landline phone numbers. Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community Survey 1-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±4.8 percentage points. There are 784 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.9 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups with a minimum sample size of 100 unweighted completed interviews as to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

you can go here : https://www.realclea...6179.html#polls

click on the poll and it tells oyu where they get their data

[modi123_1]

Well fuckity fuck. A buddy of mine (different than the one previously mentioned having a positive antibody test) his dad is in a long term care facility due to impairment from a stroke last year.

Local news broke last night that the facility has an explosion of cases (60+) even though the facility has been on lock down since March. Buddy got a call his dad indeed did test positive. Fuuuuuuuuuuuck.

[h4nnib4l]

That's brutal. One of my colleague's lost his mother-in-law to it a few weeks ago. She was in a similar facility that had an outbreak, and it killed her before she had a chance to transition to hospice care.

The long, asymptomatic incubation period is brutal for those types of facilities, since so many of their care givers work in more than one.

[ArtificialSoldier]

I don't know what's going on here in Phoenix or Maricopa County in general. Restaurants are allowed to open again. On a site that measures preparedness, Maricopa gets a 6 out of 100, primarily I think because our physical hospital capacity earns a whopping 2 out of 100, something like 190 beds per 100k people. But, I can't name a single person who has it here, there's no one who I know who says that anyone that they know has it. Maybe it's because the city is so spread out that we already socially distance all the time. We have a high population but extremely low density, no one builds vertical here when the land is so cheap, it's why we have so many large tech factories. I can't really blame a lack of testing either, because ICU beds are only at 80% capacity, which is definitely at the high end of what's comfortable but it's not overloaded. It's just a weird situation. We might simultaneously be a success story and an example of what not to do. Which I guess kind of describes Phoenix in general.

[DarenR]

maybe they arent reporting all cases and deaths -- you know like florida https://www.palmbeac...ths-from-public

[NeoTifa]

Our stuff is opening up again. Nykc just unfriended me yesterday over this crap because he keeps posting nonsense about how lockdowns are like the holocaust and if you're calling the cops on your neighbors who are throwing large gatherings you're basically like the Nazis who called cops on the Jews. I said it was stupid, preventing death != causing death. He also stated that "the numbers show that reopening is doing well" when every model I've seen of the states that reopened early show a large uptick in new cases but okay. Be that way. Luckily we don't work on the same team or anything, so work shouldn't be awkward lol.

[jon.kiparsky]

Moderna reporting success on a very small initial human trial of a vaccine candidate (N=8, seems pretty small to me anyway but what do I know?)

https://www.nytimes....ne-moderna.html

[jon.kiparsky]

NeoTifa, on 18 May 2020 - 08:49 AM, said:

Our stuff is opening up again. Nykc just unfriended me yesterday over this crap because he keeps posting nonsense about how lockdowns are like the holocaust and if you're calling the cops on your neighbors who are throwing large gatherings you're basically like the Nazis who called cops on the Jews. I said it was stupid, preventing death != causing death.

Yeah, that shit's sorta weird. Big picture, it seems like it's the end phase of the right-wing's 20-year campaign to eliminate the idea of truth by emitting a constant stream of bullshit. (and I'm using "bullshit" in the technical sense as described by Harry Frankfurt)

I mean, when the right wing starts calling people Nazis for trying to prevent the deaths of working class people and people of color and doctors, you know they know what they're up to.

Quote

He also stated that "the numbers show that reopening is doing well" when every model I've seen of the states that reopened early show a large uptick in new cases but okay.

Yeah, there was a lot of reporting in the last week or so about countries that tried releasing restrictions and quickly slapped them back on. Personally, I'm not going to be changing my behavior at all as Mass starts to release restrictions, and I hope everyone here will continue to maintain social distancing until there is data to suggest it's safe to relax.